NATO Early Warning System Demo Brief

Current Military Developments

NATO-Russia Tensions

Russia has conducted significant troop movements near the border with the Baltic states in the last 48 hours. Official statements refer to "routine exercises," however, an unusually large number of combat aircraft and tactical missile systems have been moved to the region.

• Approximately 15,000 Russian soldiers are participating in the exercises
• 70 combat aircraft have been deployed to airfields near the border
• NATO has increased its airspace monitoring
• Electronic warfare has intensified, with GPS signal disruption in parts of Eastern Poland and Lithuania

NATO sources report increased communication density within Russian military units, which typically indicates preparations for larger operations.

Ukraine Conflict Escalation

In Ukraine, the situation has deteriorated following a new wave of precision strikes on critical infrastructure:

• 40% of Ukrainian energy infrastructure is damaged or destroyed
• Multiple major cities are without stable power and water supplies
• Air defense systems are increasingly overwhelmed

The attacks were carried out with a combination of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, against which Ukrainian air defense has limited effectiveness.

Diplomatic Developments

Diplomatic relations between NATO and Russia have reached a new low:

• Three Russian diplomats were expelled from Germany
• Russia has announced counter-sanctions against several European NATO countries
• Crisis meetings have been convened at NATO headquarters

Despite the tense situation, direct communication channels between high-ranking military officials on both sides remain open, reducing the risk of unintended escalations.

Resource Security

Energy Supply

The energy supply in Europe shows clear signs of stress:

• Gas flows through the remaining pipelines have been reduced by 15%
• Storage levels are at 67% (10% below seasonal average)
• Electricity prices have risen by 35% in the last 72 hours

This particularly affects Eastern European NATO countries, which are more dependent on Russian energy supplies.

Food Supply

The food supply remains stable, but with rising prices:

• Wheat prices have increased by 12% following restrictions on exports from the Black Sea region
• Logistic chains show initial signs of stress at the eastern NATO borders

Cyber Threat

We are observing a significant increase in cyber attacks against critical infrastructure in NATO countries:

• Several energy providers reported attempted intrusions into their systems
• DDoS attacks against government websites in Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia
• Disinformation campaigns in social media that stoke fears of energy shortages

Recommendations for Civilians

Based on the current threat level, we recommend the following measures:

Short-term Measures (next 7 days)

• Replenish fuel reserves and maintain at least half a tank in vehicles
• Keep cash reserves of €200-300 per household member
• Ensure food supplies for 10-14 days
• Charge flashlights and power banks

Medium-term Measures (next 30 days)

• Plan communication channels with family and friends for emergencies
• Check alternative heating options in case of energy outages
• Establish water reserves of 2-3 liters per person/day for one week

Information Sources

• Regularly check official channels of local authorities
• Exercise caution with alarming news in social media
• Pay attention to detailed updates from the NATO Early Warning System

The situation is serious but not a cause for panic. With adequate preparations, civilians can significantly increase their resilience.